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SP1s Luis Castillo + Tyler Glasnow (July 5)

A 12-game schedule continues on Friday, with a first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel And YahooBefore we get to our MLB DFS TipsAs always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to analyze today’s MLB DFS Stacksimportant pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Watch for Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo and what looks like a grab bag of options for an SP2 on this wild post-holiday slate. The Coors Field Extravaganza continues to dominate decision-making, although there are some shaky pitchers to attack on Friday.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | 5th July

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MLB DFS Tips: Pitchers in the Spotlight

Main List Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. MIL)

Braves vs. Giants – 3.9 implied runs
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$10,800 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$57 at Yahoo

The Stokastic Top Pitcher Tool has RHP Tyler Glasnow as the highest-rated pitcher. This is no surprise, of course, but the Cy Young Award contender has a 20% chance of being among the top two pitchers on DraftKings and Yahoo, while on FanDuel the probability is 10%. There are five other pitchers with a 15% chance of being among the top two pitchers on DraftKings and Yahoo, while the blue side has four with a 7% or higher probability.

That means there are plenty of opportunities tonight, especially for the budget-conscious team. Milwaukee has been a top-seven offensive team this season, but the Brewers are coming off a series at Colorado and haven’t had an off day that would have given them a chance to get used to pitches behaving a little differently at altitude than usual. Pregame batting practice won’t be enough to prepare this team for a pitcher of Glasnow’s caliber.

The 30-year-old star is coming off his shortest outing of the season, having been taken out of the game in San Francisco after 61 pitches and just three innings, allowing five runs. That was partly due to the order and bad luck, as he allowed just nine baserunners, had seven hits (three doubles), two walks and just a very lonely strikeout.

Obviously it was just one of those games, but that’s still a little concerning considering how high the salary cap was to accommodate Glasnow. Even though this is his ninth MLB season, injuries have always been a problem for Glasnow and his 103 frames are the third most of his career (120, 111.2). We should do everything we can to use Glasnow as an anchor for “cash games” (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-man, etc.), but there’s plenty of tournament rotation and of course a game at Coors Field with some expensive bats.

Main List Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo (SEA vs. TOR)

Mariners vs. Blue Jays – 3.3 implied runs
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8th,700 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo

Toronto has a 4-12 record in their last 16 games and their offense has struggled, scoring three or fewer runs in nine of those games. RHP Luis Castillo had a rough June with an ERA of 5.12 in his six starts, but he still only allowed four home runs in 33.1 innings and had a decent 28 strikeouts

Despite these struggles, the 31-year-old still has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and just under one strikeout per inning. FanDuel and DraftKings have Castillo assigned reasonable salaries tonight, but Yahoo gives players a good 15-20% discount. Castillo has made 10 good starts in his 16 appearances, and that milestone is definitely in play tonight.

Most important wild card pitching target: RHP Albert Suarez (BAL at OAK)

Orioles at Athletics – 3.8 implied runs
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,600 at DraftKings
$7,400 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo

Tonight RHP Albert Suárez is the discount dandy at DraftKings and FanDuel. At just $3 cheaper than Castillo, he’s not particularly attractive at Yahoo.

The first pitch will be about 70 degrees, with a 5-10 mph breeze in center field. Luckily, that’s OK, because Suarez usually allows a lot of fly balls.

The Oakland offense has plenty of power, but the difficulty getting on base makes solo hits palatable. The A’s have the seventh-most home runs in the league, but the second-most strikeouts and the third-fewest runs. In his seven starts since moving into the rotation, Suarez has just 6.35 strikeouts per nine innings, with 4.24 walks, but just 0.26 home runs per nine. With a 32.7% groundball rate, he flirts with the edge of disaster, but for the brave – the salary savings are solid. Late in the season, it makes sense to have a power trio of Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Shae Langoliers, Brent Rooker And Zack Gelof. There is always the possibility that walks will become a problem for Suarez and the Athletics will be able to make contact with runners on base, but of course that will still be factored into the team’s 3.8 total.

MLB DFS Tips: Top Stacks

Main goal of the main list: Detroit Tigers

Tigers at Reds – 4.8 implied runs
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Carson Spires
DK Top Stack %: 10.4%
FD Top Stack %: 9.7%

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool Kansas City has a 12% chance of being the top scoring team in Colorado vs. LHP tonight I’m Kyle Freeland. The Yankees are third with a 7-8% chance of winning this award, but there are some concerns about the weather in New York. Surprisingly, the Tigers have the second-best projection while also being among the top two value stacks on major DFS websites.

The Motor City Kitties get a great park upgrade from their Detroit location and a strong matchup against rookie RHP Carson Peaks. Last year, Spires was quite good, going 13 innings in The Show, and this season he’s gone 37.1 more. Even if you give the 26-year-old credit for his time as a reliever, he still has just 7.33 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has at least shown some control and limited the number of home runs. He’s the 26th-best prospect in Cincinnati’s system, which doesn’t bode well for his prospects tonight.

Riley Greene And Matt Vierling are the dynamic duo. The rest of the Tigers were a bit toothless this year, but Parker Meadows, Colt Keith And Wenceslau Perez are still young and have shown talent. They can be supplemented by experienced players Mark Canha or catcher Carson Kelly for full stacks.

Secondary objective of the main slate: Baltimore Orioles

Orioles at Athletics – 5.0 implied runs
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opponent: LHP Hogan Harris
DK Top Stack %: 4.8%
FD Top Stack %: 4.9%

This is a downgrade of the Orioles’ performance, but considering Baltimore leads the league with 15 home runs and 71 total bases, this shouldn’t be a major cause for concern. LHP Hogan Harris is a good pitcher who has exceeded expectations and is considered the A’s 32nd prospect.

The concern is that he’s prone to fly balls, which of course can quickly lead to home runs. In his 102.2 MLB innings, he has a rate of 1.40 home runs per nine innings, with a mediocre 7.63 strikeouts and a problematic combination of 3.68 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine. He got blown out by Arizona in his last start, allowing 10 hits and recording just three strikeouts in 3.1 innings. In his last four games, he’s lasted 19.1 innings, allowing four home runs and recording just 13 strikeouts.

Harris obviously gives the hitters with the other hand more power, but his left-handed colleagues have also been productive. Shooter Henderson And Colton Cowser will likely be the two Baltimore hitters swinging the bat from the left side of the box, with Henderson boasting a .396 wOBA and .259 ISO in 121 matchups with same-handed hitters this season.

Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle And Jordan Westburg all have sufficient power and offer flexibility by representing several different positions. To differentiate Jorge Mateo It is always fun to set him up, as he can steal a bag if the opportunity arises. Once upon a time, James McCann was a cheap power option against lefties and although he hasn’t shown that this year, he’s another differentiator for later hitters.

If you need more tips on using the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to make the most of your learnings from the Sims! Check it out HERE.

Tanner Bibee is a target in the world of sports betting for his under 6.5 strikeouts, which is available at +105 on Fluff and +100 on Points bet

OddsShopper shows that this bet has “true odds” of 106 for Bibee to fall below that threshold, giving an excellent expected ROI of 5.4%. Fluff and an expected ROI of 3.4% on PointsBet

We can also see how important it is to compare odds, as BetRivers And Unibet at -127, indicating a NEGATIVE expected ROI of 8%.

Bibee has racked up enough strikeouts this season, including at least seven in five of his last six games. The Giants have done a pretty good job of limiting strikeouts to right-handed pitchers, with the projected lineup this season boasting a 20.8% strikeout rate.

As the lineups are announced, more bets are constantly appearing and disappearing every few minutes, which is why it’s important to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all the opportunities.

Final MLB DFS Tips and Thoughts for Friday, July 5

From the list presented, Cincinnati and New York are worth mentioning, especially since the game at Yankee Stadium carries about a 50% chance of a late start or other delay. Just before first pitch, be sure to check your favorite MLB weather forecast site for updates before placing your MLB DFS picks.

Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live before the Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET presented by DraftKings Pick6 – new users, use this link to get $50 with your first $5 bet!

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